The Climate Lottery: Fall 2020 Contest

The Climate Lottery is a forecast contest free to play by giving your picks in an e-mail or in this post’s comment section. No prizes will be given out for the contest, which is for educational purposes only. The main purpose for the contest is to get people interested in National Center for Environmental Information climate products. The special account that I have set up for the contest is guywalton10@gmail.com. This time I will make a personal pick, following along with any players.

The National Center for Environmental Information ranking numbers for average temperatures of the lower 48 states for Fall 2020 will be posted on or shortly after December 6th, 2020 which will be the official “Climate Lottery” numbers of the contest. Any subsequent changes by NCEI after their initial posted rankings will not be valid for the contest…but those ranking numbers will change with time.

The winning Climate Lottery numbers for Summer 2020 (JUN, JUL, AUG) were 103/116/124 with a Power Ball number of 123 for the season, meaning that Summer2020 was third warmest in recorded history for the United States.

Hello again to all weather and climate geeks out there. Summer 2020   turned out to be near record warm, average temperature wise, for most of the United States. If you wish to play “The Climate Lottery” pick one number between 1 and 126 (with 1 representing the coldest possible ranking and 126 being the highest possible ranking) for September, October and November 2020. Also, pick a “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for Fall 2020 between 1 and 126. The Power Ball ranking will serve as a tiebreaker for any close picks between contestants. Your picks are NCEI rankings for average temperatures across the lower 48 states. Since 2020 is the 126th year that the National Center for Environmental Information has been ranking years since 1895 all months for 2020 will have a warmest ranking of 126. Monthly rankings for 2020 will have a range from 1 to 126 with the coldest ranking being the number 1.

Please give your picks to Guywalton10@gmail.com before October 5th, 2020. If you wait until just before October 5th to make your picks you can make an educated guess as to what the ranking for September will be and also a heads-up guess for October. All data can be found at the National Center for Environmental Information site noted here:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings/110/tavg/202005

The Power Ball (or overall National Center for Environment Information) number for Summer 2020 for the lower 48 states was 123, which was well above the average ranking of 63, for the lower 48 states. Only three other summers were hotter. In the Climate Lottery game, I’ve defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, power ball numbers as those for each season, and mega ball numbers as those for each year. 

Chances for an entire season of below average temperatures are becoming much less likely across the lower 48 states due to carbon pollution. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change and to get people to look at NCEI data. Of course, as far as the globe goes, the larger an area that is compared to average, the more likely that area is to be above long term averages. What has happened this decade is yet more proof of the climate lottery game being loaded for warmth in the United States. Balls coming out of the Climate Lottery hopper are likely to have high numbers. 

Here’s a breakdown of the National Climatic Center’s ranking numbers by state for Summer 2020, which was ranked as 4th warmest (or a Powerball ranking of 123):

There were no states with below average rankings for Summer 2020. Arizona. Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut had their hottest summer in record. The coolest conditions relative to a average occurred in the heart of the country.

The following is a breakdown of each month for Summer 2020. Each chart shows “Climate Lottery” numbers for each state (or rankings) from a scale of 1 to 126.

In June the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 103 (out of 126 since a ranking of 126 was highest for 2020): 

Summer started out warm in the northern Plains and in the Northeast. June was our coolest summer month but well above climatological relative averages.

In July the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 116 (out of 126):

1-Month Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

The Northeast roasted in a historic heat wave.

In August the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 124 (out of 126):

The entire southwestern area had its hottest summer on record, which has led to horrendous conflagrations during September. The nation’s heartland did see some below average conditions.

 The following are the rankings, so far, for individual months or “climate lottery number picks” from 2011-2020:

The average ranking for 2020 is 63 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest 126. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 43 blue and all those at or above 83 red with rankings + or – 20 from the mean value of 63 black. With time, the rankings for each individual month, season and year will change as more data becomes available from NCEI. Also, for reference, the annual or “mega ball” numbers are shown on the chart. The mega ball number for 2018 was 112, meaning that 2018 was the thirteenth warmest year on record for the lower 48 states. 

Seasonal or Power Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are MAR/APR/MAY, summer JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCEI rankings for seasons are not merely an average of rankings of individual month of a season or year as was the case for Summer 2020- 103/116/124 P.B.123:

Notice that since the start of 2011 only three out of thirty-eight seasons have been well below average or “blue.” Twenty-eight out of thirty-nine seasons since 2011 have been “red” or above average. Summer 2020 was well above average, so was colored red. Indeed, the Climate Lottery hopper is very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history. Yes, the “casino of climate averages” is cheating causing the “house of warming” to win just about every season due to carbon pollution.

I hope that everyone will have a great fall.

Guy Walton…”The Climate Guy”