Saturday October 21st… Dear Diary. We are now only one day away from the start of a short but historic heat wave across California, which will be another in a long series for 2017. Just how historic will depend upon the extent of potential wildfires. Record heat will be a given looking at model data. Today let’s […]
Author: guyonclimate_mi5tor
Back Into Hell… More Heat and Fire for California
Published today the 19th this is a must read for the event to come: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18102017/california-wildfires-global-warming-drought-wind-climate-change- Here is a good forecast from MDA Weather Services in association with the upcoming wind event in California: Day after day this week meteorological models have been painting the same picture for California and the Southwest for much of next […]
Fall and Winter Heat Diary October 16-20, 2017
Friday October 20th… Dear diary. It appears that the peak of the California heat wave will be on Tuesday OCT 24th. Just how long will the regime of above average and record setting temperatures last? To answer this forecast question let’s first look at the 500 mb pattern for the peak of the upcoming heat wave […]
Recipe for a Climate Change Disaster
By now there are numerous articles and posts concerning the ongoing California wildfire disaster, which is the worst in that state’s history. The links to climate change are obvious, but I can add some simple statistics helping to cement claims of attribution. Let’s look at the three steps that led to this tragedy. First there […]
Updated Streak Dissection
Six months ago I began to dig more into National Center for Environmental Information data in relation to the record long “streak” of consecutive months of more daily high records than lows across the U.S. I posted information here: http://www.guyonclimate.com/2017/04/09/streaking-past-a-tipping-point/ and here: http://www.guyonclimate.com/2017/04/12/streak-dissection/ As of September 2017 the streak has reached 34 months starting in […]
Heat Dome Longevity/Possible More Topical Troubles?
Nate and a front has put a dent in the thing, but it just won’t die. Just how long will anomalously warm temperatures last across the eastern U.S? The heat dome will build up to historical levels again across the eastern U.S. this week. Nate can be seen on 500 mb charts as a little […]
Heat Dome Verification and Tropical Ramifications
Ah the saga of the October heat dome continues. Yesterday and today, 10/3 and 10/4/17, are the days I alluded to in “Weird, Warm and Spooky” in which I wrote that I hadn’t seen a heat dome of this magnitude forecast in October in my 35 year career as a meteorologist: http://www.guyonclimate.com/2017/09/25/warm-weird-and-spooky/ The piece was […]
Dissecting the Heat Dome
In the past week I sent out a tweet that garnered more attention than any of my prior social media transmissions, which I was rather surprised at: https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/912706196460773376 I was pleased to see a Washington Post article stemming from what I noticed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/28/summers-revenge-part-2-mega-heat-dome-to-build-over-central-and-eastern-u-s-next-week/?sdfsdfdsfds&utm_term=.68f1a40a973a In the tweet I stated and informed Dr. Michael Mann, “If verified at […]
Warm, Weird and Spooky
I ended my “Heat and Flood Diary” posts a couple of weeks ago when the last dangerous heat of the 2017 season subsided and Irma died over the South. On September 1st at the height of the last heat wave San Francisco established an all-time high of 106F. Now there has been an astonishing flip/flop […]
Tropical Cyclone Land Interactions… A Proposal
The worst hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, so far, have made catastrophic landfalls. Two of them, Irma and Maria, took interesting paths from a research standpoint, that I’ll point out. In the original 1960s Star Trek there was an episode involving a “doomsday” automated planet killer machine that Captain Kirk figured out how to stop […]