The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: A Weather Surprise…The Rapid Intensification Of Cyclone Gati
Dear Diary. Over the weekend I saw several messages that a hurricane had hit Somalia in East Africa, undergoing rapid intensification, a hallmark of global warming.
In the last few years I and other meteorologists have come to the horrid realization that we have less lead time to warn people due to storms fueled by well above average sea surface temperatures because of this rapid intensification process. Storms can get much stronger faster before they hit, in some cases before current state of the art meteorological models can get a firm grasp of what is coming. Also, looking at Gati we are also starting to see storms thrive in areas of the world which traditionally do not have to contend with hurricanes:
This is yet another sign of climate change. Essentially, the warmer seas get the further the realm of hurricanes can expand since these storms need sea surface temperatures above 80°F to develop and grow.
Over the last two years East Africa has seen a plethora of hardships ranging from a big locust invasion to flooding, most of which can be traced to our changing climate. Today let’s focus on the new hardship brought about by Goti, which made its way inland into a country that has been made poor due to political strife leading to anarchy, at times, for decades.
Here is a Washington Post article authored by my two friends Andrew Friedman and Matthew Cappucci with many more details on Goti:
Cyclone Gati hits Somalia as country’s strongest storm on record after explosive intensification
The system’s winds increased by nearly 70 mph in just 12 hours.
November 23, 2020 at 9:56 a.m. PST
Cyclone Gati approaches landfall in Somalia on Sunday. (NASA Worldview)
Tropical Cyclone Gati struck the arid nation of Somalia on Sunday as the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, making it the strongest storm on record to hit the country. The cyclone made landfall after undergoing an extraordinary period of rapid intensification, at one point attaining the strength equivalent to a Category 3 storm, with 115 mph maximum sustained winds.
Its landfall was farther south than any major hurricane-equivalent cyclone on record in that part of the world as well.
At least four people were reported dead from Gati, according to the Puntland Mirror. Landfall occurred near Xaafuun, a small community about 900 miles northeast of Mogadishu, where the land juts east near the northern tip of the country. Hordio and Ashira, both desert communities, were also directly affected by the core of the storm.
A broad four to eight inches of rainfall accompanied the system through northern Somalia, the driest part of the country, drenching desert regions with a year or two’s worth of rainfall in just a matter of hours to a couple of days. Rains also swept through the Gulf of Aden and brushed up against Yemen.
On Saturday evening, Gati had just surpassed the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm status, churning west toward Somalia. Overnight, though, its winds increased to 45 mph, and a bout of extremely rapid intensification quickly ensued. As the sun rose Sunday, winds were at 115 mph. Data shows the storm’s winds increased by 70 mph in just 12 hours, a highly unusual occurrence particularly for this location.
A contributor to Gati’s rapid intensification was its small size, which allowed the storm to respond quickly to changes in the surrounding environment and hastily gain strength.
Two other Indian Ocean Basin cyclones had jumped by 65 mph in 12 hours. Both of those storms did so in the Bay of Bengal, where the ocean basin’s strongest storms are typically located.
Cyclone Gati whirs toward the Somali coast Sunday. (RAMMB/CIRA)
Even more impressive is that Gati reached its maximum intensity at 10.3 degrees north, farther south than any other Indian Ocean cyclone on record.
Residents in coastal Somalia may have been caught off guard by the ferocity of the storm, unmatched by any other system in Somali history. Winds of 62 to 69 mph were predicted in a joint forecast issued by the Somalia Water and Land Information Management and the United Nations.
“Destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats due to the strong winds” was also anticipated. The bulletin urged fishermen and mariners, industries that make up the majority of Somalia’s coastal economy, to evacuate the water and move inland.
In a display of elegance and discomfiting natural power, Gati was one of two tropical systems pinwheeling through the western Indian Ocean simultaneously. A second well-formed whirl, probably a tropical depression, orbited Gati to the east. The interaction between the two tempests played a role in helping steer Gati farther to the south, driving it directly into northern Somalia on an atypical route.
Rapid intensification becoming more frequent
Gati is the latest storm globally to rapidly intensify, a term reserved for tropical cyclones that spike in strength by 35 mph or more in 24 hours. Gati did so at double the rate needed to qualify for rapid intensification.
Ten storms rapidly intensified during the Atlantic’s record 2020 hurricane season, complicating forecast efforts since a number of them continued strengthening through landfall, resulting in them hitting a peak intensity.
One storm in the Atlantic rivaled Cyclone Gati, as Hurricane Iota intensified at the astonishing rate of 80 mph in 24 hours before slamming into the coast of northeastern Nicaragua late Monday night.
Scientists say rapid intensification is happening more frequently, as storms are given a turbo boost from rising ocean temperatures. During the Atlantic hurricane season, the waters of the Atlantic have been unusually mild, the result of human-caused global warming superimposed atop natural climate cycles.
According to Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane scientist at MIT, rapidly intensifying storms provide a warning: The increasing tendency for hurricanes to rapidly intensify is a better gauge for how climate change is influencing them rather than how strong they ultimately get.
Based on recent peer-reviewed studies he co-wrote, NOAA meteorologist Jim Kossin said it’s clear that the odds of a storm rapidly intensifying have increased compared with what they were just a few decades ago. While this is particularly the case in the Atlantic, where there is more accurate data kept about such storms, such trends are probably being seen in other ocean basins as well.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect newer, more reliable storm intensity data concerning Cyclone Gati.
Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019, and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy. Follow
Andrew Freedman edits and reports on extreme weather and climate science for the Capital Weather Gang. He has covered science, with a specialization in climate research and policy, for Axios, Mashable, Climate Central, E&E Daily and other publications. Follow
Here is more climate and weather news from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”