Friday January 3rd… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topics: U.S. Energy Information Agency Projects 50% Increase In World Energy Usage By 2030/ Good Australian Climate Crisis Video From Jeff Berardelli
Dear Diary. It was no surprise this morning when I saw an article on the Desdemona Despair site saying that the world’s hunger for more energy will be spiking as we move towards the middle of this century. People in India and Asia are rapidly modernizing, forming a new middle class, which will have similar lifestyles to those already in place in Europe and the Americas. Already there is great desire for cars, appliances and computer devices in China and India that require energy, mostly generated in Asia from coal and gasoline for transportation.
Also, of course, brown energy companies welcome the need for more energy and vehicles, wanting to take a big share of burgeoning markets. Oil companies will encourage the growth of individual transportation instead of mass transit as China’s and India’s road infrastructure improves. So, unfortunately we get this report, which I will share today:
EIA projects nearly 50 percent increase in world energy usage by 2050, led by growth in Asia – Carbon dioxide emissions to grow from all three fossil fuel sources
Global primary energy consumption by region, 2010-2050. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2019 reference case. Graphic: EIA
3 January 2020 (EIA) – In its newly released International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50 percent between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia.
EIA’s IEO2019 assesses long-term world energy markets for 16 regions of the world, divided according to OECD and non-OECD membership. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.
The industrial sector, which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. World industrial sector energy use increases by more than 30% between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption reaches about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 2010-2050. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grow from all three fossil fuel sources in the reference case. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2019 reference case. Graphic: EIA
Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40% between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.
Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65% between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.
The growth in end-use consumption results in electricity generation increasing 79% between 2018 and 2050. Electricity use grows in the residential sector as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also increases in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.
Global primary energy consumption by energy source, 2010-2050. This graph shows what Spencer Dale, BP’s group chief economist, calls “electrification without decarbonization”, which does not improve the global warming outlook. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2019 reference case. Graphic: EIA
With the rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables—including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power—are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case. Worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3.1% per year between 2018 and 2050, compared with 0.6% annual growth in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4% growth in coal, and 1.1% annual growth in natural gas consumption.
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillion Btu by 2050. In addition to the natural gas used in electricity generation, natural gas consumption increases in the industrial sector. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand.
Global liquid fuels consumption increases more than 20% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches more than 240 quadrillion Btu in 2050. Demand in OECD countries remains relatively stable during the projection period, but non-OECD demand increases by about 45%.
If energy usage throughout the world remained stable renewables would have an easier time replacing brown energy, greatly stabilizing CO2 output and the climate. The need for more energy, though, will not stabilize CO2 output as shown in this report, although we should all work hard to prove it wrong, encouraging every windmill to be raised and solar panel installed over the next thirty years. I’ll be posting more such reports on this site frequently as we move through this crucial year.
The biggest climate crisis item for the foreseeable short term future will be Australian heat and fire. CBS’s Jeff Berardelli has produced a great video explainer for what is happening weather and climate wise in Australia today. Click on this tweet and check the video out:
Here is more news from Friday concerning Australia:
Here is more climate and weather news from Friday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”