Wednesday October 2nd… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
An Early October Heat Wave To Remember (Post Three)
Today in some respects will be the peak of our early October heat wave since we should see the most numbers of records fall across the eastern and southern U.S. in one day this week. Some locations like Atlanta, however won’t see their highest temperatures until Thursday, though.
I have one thought about traditional climatology and weather forecasting in association with this October heat wave for today. The following automatically generated chart incorporates statistically generated numbers based on weather models like the GFS with some seasonal climatology (from MRFMOS):
I’m just shaking my head here. At The Weather Channel prior to about 2014 we primarily used MRFMOS to forecast temperatures going out seven days. Forecast maxes shown on the above chart across the Southeast are about 5 degrees too low! Now the new climate is starting to dictate what the weather forecast should be despite old models. Thankfully, newer temperature guidance from such sources as the European Model have come along since 2014, which doesn’t incorporate as much traditional climatology. Short range temperature forecasts have gotten much better despite rapid changes brought about by climate change. (And yes, services that provide charts such as the one above still need to adapt).
Without further adoo here are more notes from experts on this historic fall heat wave (and record temperatures in general):
Here are some “ET” statements from Tuesday 10/1 and Wednesday, 10/2/2019.
(This list will get very long as we move through Wednesday):
Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”