Wednesday September 25th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Another Late Fall For The Southern United States, But There Are Signs Of Cooler Weather Coming In Early October
As discussed on this blog earlier this week this September has seen some of the warmest conditions for any September recorded across a good portion of the southern United States. As we know this is to be expected as global warming tightens it’s grip on the world, so much so as of 2019 that only the most die hard denialists are not acknowledging climate change trends, if not the causes. Of course, not every September in the near future will see temperatures as warm as this one in the South or any other portion of the country, buy the roulette wheel of climate has many more warm slots than cool for the next couple of decades.
In Atlanta we are expecting 90s for maxes every day into the first few days of October, for example. This is very unusual since most of the time prior to the 2010s seeing 90s in September here is rare, and seeing 90s in October would be exceptional but not unprecedented. As of 9/25 the average maximum in Atlanta is 79°F. There are signs, though, that more typical fall weather is coming after about October 4th when a strong cold front will finally put a kibosh in summer.
The following 500 chart is from today’s latest operational GFS Model run, indicating the apex or zenith of the expected heat done forecast to build over the Southeast through this coming weekend:
By Saturday and Sunday record highs in the mid 90s are expected in Atlanta despite an ever decreasing sun angle and when the season is officially fall. It’s no wonder looking at the ridge forecast, which is expected to be above 500 decameters. So when will this ridge collapse enough to allow for a fall front to sweep through the South? At this point by October 4th:
Here is the surface panel from the same day and time:
So potentially Atlanta could see 90s for maxes through 9/3, which would be one more canary dying in the dark mine of climate change.
Uh-oh, this GFS model run has a hurricane forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Model runs the last several days have been running hot and then cold with that part of the forecast. At least it looks like Tropical Storm Karen will dissipate before moving towards Florida and the Gulf as of this writing, which should take place well before this potential synoptic setup on the above panels.
What worries me is the amount of warm water in the Gulf where much more than average potential energy is stored than usual:
(The blue blob in the Bahamas was cool water upwelled by Hurricane Dorian.)
On the other hand, this morning’s European model holds that summertime ridge over the South. One thing that’s for sure, some typical Late September/early October flakes will be flying across higher elevations of the far West and even at lower elevtions of the northern Rockies area due to a series of strong systems taking up camp over that portion of the country:
Nature has a way of getting systems back towards an equilibrium, and hurricanes are just one of its methods for doing so. Unfortuhately nature itself won’t be able to rectify the overall climate problem at this point for many millenia to come. We still have the power to limit any damage, though. We will see what transpires as we move into October.
More articles and notes on today’s “hot” topic:
Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
Here are a few “ET’s” from Wednesday:
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”