The good news today is that dryer air at middle and upper levels has “denuded” the central circulation in what is now officially Tropical Storm Barry such that New Orleans and Louisiana are getting a reprieve from heavy rain. The bad news is that all guidance still points to Barry flooding most of central and eastern Louisiana with more than 10 inches of rain in some spots before all is said and done. Only one persistent feeder band might be all it takes to put a good chunk of the city of New Orléans underwater, so all residents should prepare for the worst and keep listening to The Weather Channel for updates.
My thinking now is that heavy rain will start in southern Louisiana just north of Barry’s circulation beginning sometime late tonight or Friday morning. Of most concern is the potential for levees to be topped if flow from the Mississippi River gets above 20 feet. More bad news is that some guidance points to the heaviest rain from Barry falling along the spine of the Mississippi River, which would be devastating, but perhaps not as bad as that from Katrina. We do see some hope, though:
Here is more information that I am seeing from social media today:
Notice on this latest graphic that most of the heavy rain is forecast to fall along the Mississippi River:
The prospects for Barry becoming at least a Cat 1 hurricane are becoming a little less likely looking at model guidance, which is some better news than that of yesterday. Also, it now looks like Texas is off the hook, which is more good news.
I’ll be adding more notes on “Barry” as Thursday progresses.
Now let’s turn our attention to the heat. The area of advisories north of the Gulf Coastal area where Barry is lurking have shrunk substantially since Wednesday, but dangerously hot conditions do persist:
On Friday heat will be building in the West but won’t be too much of an issue east of the High Plains and Texas:
More good news. I’m less concerned today about the prospects of a big heat dome building across the entire CONUS, but heat will be expanding eastward in the wake of Barry’s remnants next week.
Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”