Extreme Temperature Diary- August 1, 2018/ Hot Topic: August Heat Targets Europe, California, and Asia

Wednesday August 1st… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing post will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😊. Here is today’s main climate change post related hot topic:

August Heat Targets Europe, California, and Asia

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line.) 

The wild summer of 2018 weather wise has now rolled into August. Unfortunately heat domes responsible for extreme conditions will strengthen the first week of this new month. Let’s take a look using 500 millibar anomaly charts. For those of you unfamiliar with these charts here is a primer: 

https://guyonclimate.com/2017/10/02/dissecting-the-heat-dome/

First I noted a few days ago that the monstrous heat wave affecting Europe will probably get more intense in some areas heading into early August:

Guy Walton‏ @climateguyw

There is not that much discernable change. At 850 millibars we see this:

Note the big red spot near Portugal. On Friday 8/3 the worst of the anomalous heat will be in that country where we are expecting thermometers to breach all-time records:

Greg Diamond added,

WMO | OMMVerified account @WMO

#Heatwave in #Spain starts today says @AEMET_Esp Details at http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/temperaturas?dia=hoy&zona=penyb

1:23 AM – 1 Aug 2018

Kees van der Leun‏@Sustainable2050

50°C in Portugal, later this week, would be devastating. So far, temperature in Portugal has never exceeded 47.4°C (2003).

Via @redevries

Kees van der Leun added,

severe-weather.EU@severeweatherEU

Extreme heat for Spain and Portugal confirmed – up to 50°C possible in some areas!

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-extreme-heat-wave-for-iberia-confirmed/

2:33 PM – 31 Jul 2018

Bob Henson‏Verified account @bhensonweather

This is a really worrisome setup for wildfires: temps above 110°F, relative humidity below 20%, and downslope winds.

Weather UndergroundVerified account@wunderground

Spain and Portugal may experience some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe later this week, stoking a serious wildfire threat: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Blistering-Heat-Serious-Wildfire-Threat-Heading-Spain-and-Portugal

12:14 PM – 1 Aug 2018

Quoting Bob’s piece:

“A ridge of high pressure that’s been lodged over and near northern Scandinavia will be eroding later this week, as a separate ridge builds northward from Africa and a trough approaches Europe from the northwest. This pattern will pull hot, dry air from Algeria and Morocco into the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), along with some Saharan dust. By the weekend, a building surface high across Ireland and Britain will help push the scorching air mass back southward across the higher terrain of central Iberia. This will lead to downslope flow across parts of Portugal and southwest Spain that could heat the air even further.”

By August 6th we see this forecast heat dome orientation over Europe:  

All areas across Europe should cool, but temperatures should remain above average. If it’s one thing that I’ve learned in my 30+ year career these ridges will wax and wane, but once in place over the summer, they are stubborn to dissipate or move resulting in no overall weather pattern change. The same holds true for the western U.S. this year. After getting a very brief break this weekend our unfriendly ridge should get back above 597 decameters next week:

If any monsoon moisture gets entrained into the ridge I fear that lightning strikes may set off more fires from “dry” thunderstorms, which are typical in California from this weather pattern.

The eastern U.S. should continue to be protected from extreme heat looking at the ridge/trough configuration.

I saw this new writeup from Dr. Jeff Masters concerning Asia today:

 

Bob Henson‏Verified account @bhensonweather

The Korean peninsula is home to about 75 million people, so this is affecting a lot of folks. Many (most?) in North Korea presumably lack A/C.

Weather UndergroundVerified account @wunderground

Wednesday was the hottest day in Korean history, with all-time highs in both Séoul and Pyongyang  https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hottest-Day-Korean-History

8:40 AM – 1 Aug 2018

Let’s take a quick peak at the current 500 mb ridge over South Korea and the forecast:

Eek! If anything the heat ridge in far eastern Asia strengthens this week. We’ll see if this translates to more record heat in Korea.

I’ll be reporting any records from these heat domes in the next week.

……………………………………………………………………………………..

Tomorrow’s forecast max map looks interesting. It may get above 90F in Boston while remaining below 80F in Atlanta due to the “atmospheric river”/trough in place over the East. In the West the cooling trend will continue in the Pacific Northwest while the remainder of the area continues to smolder. A warming trend will continue across the Plains:

Here is some July 2018 climatology:

8:00 AM – 1 Aug 2018

NWS Reno‏Verified account @NWSReno

July ended up being the hottest month on record, with records going back to 1893. The average high temperature for the month was 98°F and the average low was 65.6°F. Reno tied the overall warmest low temperature of 77°F, initially recorded on July 23, 2006 #NVwx

1:31 PM – 1 Aug 2018

Zeke Hausfather‏ @hausfath

Summer heat waves notwithstanding, the Earth as a whole has been a bit cooler in 2018 than the past three years, following the super-El Nino of 2015/2016: https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2018-set-to-be-fourth-warmest-year-despite-cooler-start …

8:01 AM – 1 Aug 2018

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