Fall Heat and Cold Diary… November 18-20, 2017

Monday November 20th… Dear Diary. Here is today’s singled out, highlighted climate related topic:

Most of the accumulated energy in Earth’s system from global warming is residing in the oceans:

The biggest reason why global temperatures are not rising as fast as some projections is that deep ocean water is absorbing some heat as noted by this Meehl study:


Now back to looking at weather patterns for the potential of more records. Another data set to get clues as to if records sill occur is departure from average 2 meter temperatures, which are also available on the Pivatol Weather site. Here we see those valid for Black Friday:

As mentioned yesterday southwest flow ahead of a front in Canada will advect near record warm air from the Southwest into the Plains. The yellow and orange colors indicate where suspect areas for record warmth will be on Friday.

I’ll add more to this post today if relevant information crosses my radar.

The Climate Guy

Sunday November 19th… Dear Diary. Here is today’s singled out, highlighted climate related topic:

News Corner: Even if there was no such thing as the greenhouse effect from carbon pollution from fossil fuels, oil would still be a dirty source of energy. It’s no wonder that people, such as Indian tribes and farmers, don’t want a pipeline in their backyard due to the potential contamination of groundwater. Well, guess what? The ever maligned and ballyhooed Keystone pipeline just sprang a leak:


From the article: “This aerial photo shows spills from TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone pipeline, Friday, Nov. 17, 2017, that leaked an estimated 210,000 gallons of oil onto agricultural land in northeastern South Dakota, near Amherst, S.D., the company and state regulators said Thursday, but state officials don’t believe the leak polluted any surface water bodies or drinking water systems. Crews shut down the pipeline Thursday morning and activated emergency response procedures after a drop in pressure was detected resulting from the leak south of a pump station in Marshall County, TransCanada said in a statement. The cause was being investigated.” (DroneBase via AP) (Associated Press)

I can’t stress enough the importance of getting away from reliance on fossil fuels.

Now back to looking at weather patterns for the potential of more records. It’s becoming more clear that we should see some record maxes during the long Thanksgiving weekend. Maxes should be near record levels in the Southwest as already discussed yesterday on Turkey day. Warm air from the Southwest will quickly move into the Plains on Black Friday ahead of a front.

Let’s look at the head dome over the West on Friday:

500 mb anomalies are warm, but sometimes we need to look at lower levels to get a clearer picture. I’m impressed with these 850 mb anomalies:

The front is well north in Canada with westerly flow coming off the Rockies into the Plains…a warm pattern:

I’ll add more this post later today should my radar see some record reports.

The Climate Guy

Saturday November 18th… Dear Diary. Here is today’s main climate related topic:

News Corner: I have wanted to see a nice, clear graphic relating emissions to global warming, and Climate Central has provided just the ticket:

I’d like to think that putting a bug in the ear of my Climate Central friend, Bernadette Woods Placky, had something to do with the graphic.😊 What’s alarming is that the atmosphere currently holds about 407 parts per million CO2, and there are no signs of leveling off as we head through the 21st century despite some good strides in the green energy sector worldwide. If emissions don’t level off warming won’t stop before or by the year 2100.

Here is the trend of CO2 concentrations from the last few years from the Mauna Loa Observatory:

Well, back to slogging through the day by day, blow by blow synoptic patterns showing how record warmth is exceeded record cold across the U.S., which is the main point of this blog. After the first warm period in the South then the cold outbreak in the Midwest and Northwest we have a statistical tie for November 2017 as of today with the “cold team” running just a few points ahead of the “warm team” at half time…11/15 in the NCEI surface records database:

513 DHMX  518 DLMN           (and 1028 DHMN  707 DLMX)

As stated yesterday we may establish a few cold records from the cold trough setting up in the Northeast this weekend. More than likely we will also see some warm records in the Southwest from a ridge setting up over the West by Turkey Day.

Here is another report from yesterday the 17th. Wow!

“Today we saw the highest temps ever for Nov. 17th, and also the second highest temps ever recorded in November or December, AND the highest ever recorded this late in the year.”….. From the Oklahoma Mesonet:

Want to see a near average temperature chart for mid-November from coast to coast? Here is Sunday’s forecast:

It will be slightly below average from the Great Lakes south to the Gulf Coast as the only caveat.

I’ll add more to this post as relevant information crosses my radar.

The Climate Guy

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