Tuesday August 22nd…
Dear diary. Today will be the last day I will be doing this blog for the summer of 2017, which is really good news for the nation. Usually widespread, dangerous heat persists across some portions of the nation into September, but not so this year. There is a chance, though, that a heat wave may develop, particularly in the West into September. If one does, I’ll be posting on it.
Today let’s go into the meteorological reasons why I’m ending this post as early as August 22nd. The latest models/ensembles through the end of this month have consistently been forecasting that the heat dome currently over the South will break down and be replaced by a cooling trough. Also, most models are redeveloping Harvey in the western Gulf and are moving the thing through the South. This scenario would keep the Midwest and Northeast mild while the Southeast would become muggy and wet with some devastating folding due to a redevelopment if Harvey. While humid, most temperatures in the South would stay below 95F going into this weekend. The only above average readings would come from the West where a heat ridge will be developing. I doubt the we will see dangerous heat from the western ridge, but I’ll keep an eye on it.
Here is a representative model scenario for the upcoming week as described in my last paragraph:
Here we see the European model has a redeveloped Harvey near coastal Texas with a cold trough in place over the East. A heat dome is in place over the West, but nothing extraordinary.
Here are tomorrows maxes:
The air mass in the wake of a front will cool maxes into the 80’s across the bulk of the South and eastern seaboard. The front will put the final kibosh on heat wave #7 tomorrow. Heat will be building in the West, but outside of typical areas in the deserts and Sacramento Valley, nothing dangerous.
Going out in time as far as I’m willing to go (Remember my 240 hour rule?) ensembles continue to forecast a cooling eastern trough and an average looking western heat dome; thus, there is not much of a reason for continuing this blog this season:
Here is the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the rest of this month:
I’ll be adding to this post relevant information through the end of the day. Once I add today’s max chart, that will be that for the 2017 Heat Diary. My next post later this week will be my 2017 U.S. fall forecast.
Here are today’s maxes:
Any dangerous heat was sliced out of Kansas and the mid-Mississippi Valley by our hear wave ending front. In my hometown the max was 93F in Atlanta. Much of the nation was spared from extreme heat in 2017 despite the overall warmth from carbon pollution currently around the planet. This was especially true in the Midwest and Southeast. Atlanta never got to or exceeded 95F, which will be a very rare feat in the future if climate predictions come true.
If able I’ll resurrect this post again for the summer of 2018. Drop me some notes for suggestions of improvements if you wish.
The Climate Guy
Monday August 21st…
Dear diary. Today was the big eclipse day, which was joyous for millions of people who were outside for a peak. The main complaint for some was typical late summer heat, which we will look at today. Heat never got extreme enough anywhere to be a substantial health risk, but I’ll let all know if there were reported problems. Low level heat wave #7 peaked yesterday and today and will be diminishing due to a cold frontal passage tomorrow. It appears that there won’t be another as we move into September, so I’ll be ending the Heat Diary blog for 2017 unless one pops up moving towards the autumnal equinox. After tomorrow I’ll mainly post my usual climate statistics and blogs in other climate change related items. If anyone wants me to take on a subject, just drop me a note.☺
As expected along the path of the total eclipse as solar radiation dropped to zero temporarily, temperatures cooled about 5-10F. Here we see this effect at Hopkinsville, Kentucky where the temperature dropped 8F from about 90F (Image credit Bryan Wood):
As of this evening heat advisories were dropped for the mid-South. A tiny area of heat advisories have been posted in New Jersey where the Eastern Seaboard had a hot day ahead of the cold front that will be putting an end to heat wave #7.
On Tuesday we’ll see one more day of 90’s up and down the Eastern Seaboard. That front will have scoured out any dangerous heat out of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley:
Here are Monday’s maxes:
Highs were mostly in the 90’s again today across the southeast quarter of the nation. I did see some reports and video of temperatures getting near 100F in bright sun before the eclipse at the University of Southern Illinois Stadium, but other than being quite uncomfortable, I’m not aware of heat health issues from today’s big outdoor event. Maxes probably would have been a few degrees higher if it was not for the eclipse.
To see all 2017 Heat Diary entries click:
The Climate Guy