The worst hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, so far, have made catastrophic landfalls. Two of them, Irma and Maria, took interesting paths from a research standpoint, that I’ll point out. In the original 1960s Star Trek there was an episode involving a “doomsday” automated planet killer machine that Captain Kirk figured out how to stop […]
Forecasting a Warm? Fall 2017
I’m going to quote myself from late spring when I attempted to make a summer forecast: “Forecasting for a season is perhaps the most difficult, and as the public knows, most unreliable product put out by any group be it those, for example, from NOAA or people putting together The Old Farmers Almanac. If farmers, power companies, construction companies, those […]
Irma Wind and Flood Diary September 10-11, 2017
Tuesday September 12th… Dear diary. Yeah! Our long national nightmare with weather appears to be over since Irma is spinning down, José is forecast to stay away from the U.S., and high heat, smoke, and fires have abated in the West. It will take many months, unfortunately, for residents to recover in Texas and Florida. […]
Irma Wind and Flood Diary September 8-9, 2017
Saturday Night Update… Dear diary. Looking at trends I’m changing my alarmist forecast to a category 4 hurricane hugging the west coast of Florida, which would be horrendously catastrophic anyway. Irma should strengthen to a four looking at new GFS guidance. Regardless, if Irma passes just west of Tampa Bay at CAT 3 strength the […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 6-7, 2017
Overnight Thursday/Friday Updates… Dear diary. This Irma nightmare keeps getting worse. I can’t sleep before posting the latest model data. From here on out I’m just going to depict where Irma’s center is forecast to be near a major city from model run to model run. The first, of course is Miami. The operational 00Z […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 4-5, 2017
Midnight Updates… Dear diary. The 00Z WED operational GFS is just a tad farther west hooking Irma due north out of the Bahamas paralleling Florida’s east coast. Taken verbatim the western eyeball wild be perilously close to shore similar to Matthews track last year. Here is Irma at its closest point to Miami on this […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 1-3, 2017
Sunday September 3rd… Dear diary. After seeing a couple more model runs since posting my long diatribe on the chances for Irma making a U.S. landfall yesterday, my forecast has not changed. I’m giving Irma a 80% chance of making a U.S. strike somewhere along the East Coast the following week. Now we can start […]
Carbon Damage Tax
Here’s a novel idea that popped into my brain this afternoon in association with the catastrophe called Harvey. Yeah, I know that this won’t pass Congress anytime soon, so this proposal is just food for fodder and debate. Why not put a damage tax on all oil and coal companies operating in the United States? […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary August 30-31, 2017
Thursday August 31st… Dear diary. Today is the last day of August so it is time to check the NCEI surface records site to see if the “streak” of consecutive months of more daily highs than lows across the U.S. is still alive and well. Data is in through the 29th and what will be […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary… August 28-29, 2017
Tuesday August 29th… Dear diary. Today is the 12th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall near New Orleans. Ironically, that city is beginning to evacuate people due to Harvey. Due to both Katrina’s and Harvey’s increased power due to climate pollution we are beginning to see what I’ll term the first climate change refugees having to leave their homes and move elsewhere […]